Essex, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

569
FXUS65 KVEF 070219
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
720 PM PDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures across the region will return to normal
today with the warming trend of the past few days continuing
through the end of the work week. Dry conditions will also
continue through the end of the week thanks to the ridge of high
pressure building over the Western US. Winds will pick up across
the western Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin on Monday with
light winds returning on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...Tonight`s weather features light winds, cool temperatures,
and mostly clear skies aside from some passing high clouds. Lows
will be near average for this time of year, which for Las Vegas
means temperatures in the mid 50s. Tomorrow`s high temperatures will
be several degrees warmer compared to today`s highs. No forecast
updates are needed at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Sunday.

Temperatures across the region will return to normal today, with
afternoon high temperatures topping out around 5 to 10 degrees
warmer than yesterday. This warming trend will continue through the
end of the work week as an upper-level ridge builds over the Western
US. A shortwave trough will move through the Pacific Northwest on
Monday, flattening the ridge and bringing breezy westerly winds to
the western Mojave Desert and eastern Sierra with breezy southerly
winds across the southern Great Basin. Wind gusts in these areas
will top out in the 25 mph to 35 mph range with isolated gusts up to
40 mph possible in areas of higher terrain. While this shortwave
will flatten our upper-level ridge, it won`t completely stop our
warming trend, it will just slow it down from Monday to Tuesday. The
upper-level ridge will begin rebuilding over the Western US on
Tuesday and will continue to be the dominant synoptic feature across
the west through the end of the work week. This will allow for our
warming trend to continue through Friday with temperatures reaching
10 to 15 degrees above normal by mid-week and 15 to 20 degrees above
normal by Friday. These hotter than normal temperatures will yield
Minor HeatRisk (Level 1 of 4) across most of our forecast area by
mid-week with Moderate HeatRisk (Level 2 of 4) in Death Valley and
the Colorado River Valley. Moderate HeatRisk will affect those
without adequate access to cooling or hydration as well as those who
have not had the chance to acclimate to these temperatures. As such,
make sure you stay hydrated and protect yourself from the sun if you
have outdoor plans during the second half of the week.

Forecast confidence decreases as we head into the weekend due to
interensemble variability regarding the timing and the strength of
an incoming system. Majority of the ECMWF members favor a solution
with a weaker shortwave trough quickly moving through the Pacific
Northwest over the weekend, whereas majority of the GFS ensemble
members favor a solution with a deeper trough slowly moving through
the area over the weekend. Given these differences in system
strength and speed, it isn`t surprising that the ECMWF mean solution
has lighter winds and warmer temperatures over the weekend whereas
the GFS mean favors cooler temperatures and stronger winds.
Regardless of which of these solutions ends up panning out, we can
still expect breezier conditions over the weekend with decreasing
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Light
and variable/diurnal winds will continue through early Monday
afternoon with speeds under 8KT. Around 22Z, winds are expected to
shift to the southwest and increase to 10KT, with intermittent
gusts to 15-20KT thereafter. There is low confidence for gusts to
exceed 20KT at this time, though will monitor and make changes as
needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail with passing high clouds
around 25kft.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...KHND and KVGT will
follow similar trends as KLAS, with elevated and gusty
southwesterly winds expected to develop at both terminals around
21-22Z. At KBIH, gusty southwesterly winds will diminish before
sunset, with winds becoming light and variable, before shifting to
the west-northwest around 21Z and increasing to around 12KT. KDAG
will see continued westerly winds, with gusts to 15-20KT
developing this evening, and increasing Monday afternoon. In the
Lower Colorado River Valley, light winds will continue at KIFP and
KEED though 20Z, when winds shift to the south-southwest and
increase to around 10KT. VFR conditions will prevail areawide,
with FEW-BKN clouds with bases around 25kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meltzer
DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Phillipson

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